So, now with the first Presidential debate over, I have been asking myself what would happen if Palin wins the VP debate over Biden.
My basic conclusion is that it won't make any difference whatsoever.
To find out why - follow me over
First, let's define what I mean by winning.
In order to win the debate, Palin does not need to score a knockout punch. Since expectations for Palin are so low, if she is able to complete most of her sentences, she'll win. Remember, Obama is judged to have "won" this first debate just by showing that he could go "toe to toe" with McCain, who was supposed to be the foreign policy expert. (I am not sure where that bit of conventional wisdom comes from, but it sure does seem to be deep - repeated by every pundit last night)
So, I have no doubt that Palin is being jammed with talking points, and that she will hit most of them. I have no doubt that she will get a few "zingers" in. I am sure that after, we will hear about how well she did.
Between now and then, the McCain camp will be frantically trying to lower expectations. We saw the diary yesterday with "leaks" about her disastrous debate preparation. I am not usually a tin foil hat guy, but I don't buy it. From a tactical point of view, that's the best thing they could do. Remember, if they set the expectations low enough, she will beat them
But, after all is said and done, it won't make a lot of difference. People vote for President. A really bad VP pick could hurt a front runner a little, but Muskie beat Agnew in 68, and Bentson beat Quayle in 88, but Nixon beat Humphrey and Bush beat Dukakis.
So, by all means, keep up the substantive attacks on Palin. They are sticking, and many conservatives have admitted she isn't ready. but don't get too hung up on anything that happens in the debate or in the spin after.
Update
Vice Presidential Debate Expectations: Obama Camp Calls Palin "Terrific Debater"
On a Saturday conference call with reporters, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe called Gov. Sarah Palin "a terrific debater" who has "performed very, very well" in previous debates with opponents in her state.